Pennant Races, Juvenile Advice, The Hangover II

Out of it by June 1? 


There was an article in the WSJ that observed how Major League Baseball teams with records below .500 at the opening of June have little/no chance of making it to the post-season. Of course, most Cub fans have resigned themselves to a baseball-less October by mid-May and if you live in Pittsburgh, you've already started the countdown to the Steelers' opener (Wha-...there's a strike? For the love of God, you're not going to take that away from us are you?)

Hey, at least we came to a Pirate game

I suspect that this kind of publicized report will send collective shivers down the owners' collective spineless spines. "Who will come to our games in July if we are out of it by June?" they will ask one another.

Their solution? I am willing to bet that they will use a strategy originally adopted by pre-K soccer moms who couldn't bear to watch their little angels suffer through the indignity of a 1-11 season without a little somethin' for the effort besides a polyester mesh jersey and a year-end Chuck E. Cheese party.

My child is no loser!

These thoughtful mothers came up with the "Everyone Gets a Trophy" plan so that their offspring wouldn't have to face the cruelty of losing during these formative years.

This strategy was later adopted by the NHL and the NBA when owners couldn't bear to see their millionaire players and significantly invested fans suffer through the indignity of cold, cruel winter nights without the chance of participating in truly meaningful (and more profitable) playoff games.

"So you're telling me that there's a chance?!"

Over half of the teams in both these leagues (16 of the 30 teams) manage to squeeze into the post-season competition...leaving the other half to go home without a ribbon, a "participation" certificate, or even a juice box (aka: "losers.")


The stingiest league is MLB, where only a quarter of the teams qualify (8 of 30); after that, it is the NFL, which allows over a third (12 of 32) into post-season play. My hope is that the baseball owners keep some integrity to the regular season so that the teams mired in 5th place by late July don't get some Wilder Wild Card reprieve that strings along their fans even further into the season, forcing them to waste their summers and money on sucky teams that would inevitably get waxed in the playoffs.


Fans can force ownership to take action by their indifference. Sadly, I am afraid that if playoff teams are added without eliminating any regular season, we'll be watching baseball in parkas, ski caps, and gloves...just like we did a couple of days ago.

Why is it that someone who has some simple theory of business success finds it analogous to something his/her kid would do or say...and then they need to share it with the world?

You've seen these columns/blogs/books; enlightened executives will stumble upon the ultimate sales advice or negotiating skill one morning as he happened to stop and listen to his child's gifted ramblings between milk-deprived tantrums.

"What my two-year-old son taught me about closing more deals" or "Everything I need to know about trading the Euro I learned from my twins"...stuff like that. Typically, the author presents the insight as if he has finally solved a problem so complex and intricate that the sharpest of men and women will stop and observe, "Why, that little tyke had it right all along! Why didn't I think of that? I get it now!"

While this juvenile advice may work in business, I have yet to see this kind of crafty insight creep into the world of golf analysis, "What that whining, crying, sniffling, gurgling, toddler can teach you about sand saves" or "How listening to my teenage daughter for 20 minutes a night added 10 yards to my drives." Now those I'd read.

Hey moron, swing slower and keep your head still

Hey, did you know that Hangover II is opening this weekend?

No really, there's a sequel! I kid you not...

I must have seen ten different versions of this preview a total of 50 times. This spot runs at least once during every sporting event that has occurred over the past month. Maybe I am watching too much sports on TV??? Hmm...wonder who the target market is for this film?

I have to admit that I have stopped the DVR a few times to catch that screaming monkey ("Joni...What are you doing!? Stop your fast forwarding, watch this! Check out Ed Helm's tat and just look at that monkey. Crazy stuff.")

And yes, I might just go see it this weekend.

We're baaack...

Gotta Hate the Heat

We Americans love our enemies.

We need someone (or something) that generates a requisite level of dislike and disgust so that we will root hard for the "right" side. In fact, when we are contemplating (or in) war, the government and media will fan the propaganda flames to make sure that the enemy is depicted as appropriately evil...often with good reason and with success.

We want a symbol that represents evil, something to focus our hatred upon. Usually, we get an appropriately horrible person that obliges.TIME magazine marks the disposal of such infamous arch enemies as Hitler, Hussein, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and now, Bin Laden with copy-less "X'd"-out covers. And since Osama is now trolling the North Arabian Sea, we'll need, and likely find, someone to take his place.

Sayonara suckas!

On a much less wicked and serious level, we sports fans love to root against our anti-heroes. We need teams and personalities to play the role of villains to stoke interest: the Russian Olympic hockey team vs. the good ol' US of A, the Miami Hurricanes vs. Penn State, Apollo Creed vs. Rocky, Capone vs. Kevin Costner, Rosie O'Donnell vs. Donald Trump (pick a side)...you get the idea.

You freakin' kiddin' me?

Who, but Detroit fans, could have cheered for the "Bad Boys?" Bill Laimbeer? C'mon...the guy would foul an opponent while he was still in a huddle and then give the ref that incredulous/dismissive look/laugh as if to say, "Me? Not me! You must be joking! Hah!"

Before the Oakland Raiders hit such a consistent level of incompetence, they took pride in providing a halfway house for the NFL's druggies, malcontents, and wife beaters. Part of their schtick was to gouge opponents eyes when refs had turned the other way, fumble forward to score winning touchdowns, and avoid personal hygiene for three days prior to Sunday; hell, even their fans would intimidate Mean Joe Greene.

For most baseball fans, their definition of evil is the New York Yankees. It's not that their roster is filled with hateful players...Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, and Jorge Posada smile, help sick kids, and respect the sport. It's just that the Yankees don't seem to play by the same rules that pertain to most other teams. They can throw as much money as is necessary to fix a problem. If you are a fan for a mid-market team, they are that bully lurking down the street ready to whisk away your best player with a fistful of cash and pinstriped promises.

You like us, you really like us...

And now, ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the Miami Heat.

They are the NBA's version of the Duke Blue Devils...except that they have less white guys, no real basketball tradition, and an unknown coach...quick, name the Heat's head coach...ten seconds...five...gotcha!

It isn't that they are a collection of miscreants or truly bad guys...I am sure that Chris Bosh, Lebron James, and Dwyane Wade bought a card or a car for their moms last week. Wade seems likable in those T-Mobile commercials and I suspect LeBron lets his entourage swim in his pool and keeps them outfitted in an appropriate and tasteful amount of bling. Still, I cannot imagine anyone north of the Everglades rooting for these guys.

For most fans, this Heat trio represents all that is wrong with pro sports and free agency: greediness and disloyalty. And what about the photo above after they had signed last summer? What is it, exactly, that they are celebrating? They're excited about the possibility of success, not actual success. These sunbaked fans ate it up...hmmm, a bit premature and overconfident? We shall see...

Ironically, one could point out (to anyone but a Cleveland fan, I suggest) that they did exercise a very American right: their freedom of choice; but sports fans want their players faithful and patient. LeBron's legions had to suffer through many lean years, by God, and now that it is time to reap the rewards of all that hard work, careful drafting, and some "dues paying"...he sure as hell better not abandon us now when the gettin' is good!

So when James gave his heartfelt "takin' my talents to South Beach" speech to a rapt national audience, a villain was born.

I suspect that over the next couple of weeks, most basketball fans will buy into rooting for the Bulls (or certainly against the Heat) given that Chicago has the appropriate positive "ying" opposite the negative "yang" of these three vagabonds. (NOTE: I have conveniently ignored, for purposes of this column, that the Bulls did court Mr. James during last summer's LeBronapalooza, "Naaahhh...we didn't want him anyway!")

I owe it all to Momma....

Our star, Derrick Rose, is humble and home grown. The league called his press conference to announce his MVP and in his speech, he spent the entire time thanking his mother, teammates, coach, trainer, family, and anyone else that had touched his life.

A Derrick Rose interview is about as exciting as a trip to the paint store. But then he steps on the court and zzzziiipp...he scoots by his opponent faster than an aggressive groupie and finds some way to bank in a shot while landing butt first into a sea of photographers, emerging with a smile and a shrug.

So, count me in on a couple weeks (or a month) of Hatin' on the Heat. I'll take Rose and the rest of his Bulls against the evil southern empire.Who's with me?

I Got Yer Horse Right Here...Dave's Derby Analysis

I consider myself very fortunate to have attended the Kentucky Derby for about half of my life. As a native Louisvillian, it is a trip home almost every May that I thoroughly enjoy.

I have watched the race with Buds, fraternity brothers, clients, colleagues, old friends, my sister, my daughter, dates, parents, and wives.

Wife Joni on the first turn

Bill & Mary Ross Bratcher & Joni

Long-Time Bud Tom Tate

I have been soaked and sunned in the infield, on the first turn, at the finish line, and on the final stretch home and by golly, when we get to "...Weep No More My Lady" as we sing My Old Kentucky Home, I still get goose bumps.


I've been in the midst of such luminaries as Rick Dees, Fred Willard, MC Hammer, Daryl Hannah, Gene Wilder, Terry O'Quinn, Kirk Herbstreit, and the late, great Merv Griffin...I could go on and on, but you get the picture...

You may know me as Jerry Hubbard

Smile, Locke...you're off the island

RIP Merv, we hardly knew ye

The Kentucky Derby consistently delivers memorable year after memorable year. I still love it. I can tell you one other consistent trait of the Derby: my inability to pick the winner. My current streak stands at 15 straight years. 

Sorry ladies, both hitched

But that streak, my friends, is about to come to an abrupt end. I have decided to throw away all prior formulas to implement a much more sophisticated, thorough, and rigorous means of picking the winner of Derby 2011. This year, I introduce my just-released soon-to-be copyrighted approach...Dave's Derby Advantage or DDA. For my loyal blog readers, it is yours for free this year! That's right, FREE.

I know that a lot of players like to look at a horse's Beyer Speed Figure. This is a very complicated formula named after prominent turf writer Andy Beyer that uses a horse's prior race time, adjusts it by the overall speed of the track that day, then multiplies it by the GNP, adds in the O'Reilly Factor and subtracts the rate of inflation; the resulting figure is an index number. And to simplify the "Beyer" even further for you dopes out there that don't follow me...anything over 100 is pretty darn good.

Dossage is another term that, if you were to toss into your Derby party banter, will earn you massive credibility. Essentially, this formula looks at the horse's breeding to reveal if it can handle the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance. As long as the Dossage falls below 4.00, your horse is good to go; except when a horse like Giacamo wins. In this case, don't use Dossage.

In addition, your sharper horse players also like to consider career earnings, shoe size, class, dating history, post position, gum health, the jockey, sexual preferences, pace, the owner's W-2, track surface preferences, and pedigree. For one to use just these statistics, I respond curtly, "Pshaw! Not enough! I am going with DDA."

I have taken all this Daily Racing Form gobblydegoop, identified seven key indicators, then reformulated these horses combined performances to arrive at a number that will tell me whether this horse belongs or not. I then take this number and translate it into the kind of language that even the greenest of Derby neophytes will understand (heck, even some hilljack from Owensboro will understand it): MAYBE THE FASTEST OF ALL, FASTER THAN MOST, PRETTY DOGGONE FAST, and NOT SO FAST. This special formula takes all of the above-mentioned variables, and then reformulates it with my seven indicators -- the age of the horse, the weight it will carry, its history at this distance -- and four other similar factors that are much too complex to cover in this rather simplistic, general interest sports blog.

So, here goes...utilizing DDA, I narrowed the field down to the eight contenders below (I eliminated all horses starting from posts 17 & higher, but I cannot reveal how I got down to eight, so don't even bother asking):

PP   Horse                 Commentary & DDA Rating
2  Brilliant Speed* - great name & great closer REALLY FAST
3  Twice The Appeal* - sprinter's breeding but Calvin Borel on him REALLY FAST

6  Comma To The Top* - gutty Santa Anita 2nd MAYBE THE FASTEST OF ALL
8  Dialed In* - one of the favorites FASTER THAN MOST
12  Santiva - bad luck, may want to include in your exotics! PRETTY DOGGONE FAST
14  Shackleford - ran well in Florida Derby, why not!?  NOT SO FAST
15  Midnight Interlude* - has won two in a row; another closer  PRETTY DOGGONE FAST
16  Animal Kingdom - likes the distance; hasn't run much  PRETTY DOGGONE FAST

Those with "*" are my top five out of these; but since I am paid to predict winners here, I'll take a longshot, Comma To The Top to win and I'll throw in an Exacta box of 2-3-6-8

It is going to be a very profitable day, so thank me later.