I Got Yer Horse Right Here...Dave's Derby Analysis

I consider myself very fortunate to have attended the Kentucky Derby for about half of my life. As a native Louisvillian, it is a trip home almost every May that I thoroughly enjoy.

I have watched the race with Buds, fraternity brothers, clients, colleagues, old friends, my sister, my daughter, dates, parents, and wives.

Wife Joni on the first turn

Bill & Mary Ross Bratcher & Joni

Long-Time Bud Tom Tate

I have been soaked and sunned in the infield, on the first turn, at the finish line, and on the final stretch home and by golly, when we get to "...Weep No More My Lady" as we sing My Old Kentucky Home, I still get goose bumps.


I've been in the midst of such luminaries as Rick Dees, Fred Willard, MC Hammer, Daryl Hannah, Gene Wilder, Terry O'Quinn, Kirk Herbstreit, and the late, great Merv Griffin...I could go on and on, but you get the picture...

You may know me as Jerry Hubbard

Smile, Locke...you're off the island

RIP Merv, we hardly knew ye

The Kentucky Derby consistently delivers memorable year after memorable year. I still love it. I can tell you one other consistent trait of the Derby: my inability to pick the winner. My current streak stands at 15 straight years. 

Sorry ladies, both hitched

But that streak, my friends, is about to come to an abrupt end. I have decided to throw away all prior formulas to implement a much more sophisticated, thorough, and rigorous means of picking the winner of Derby 2011. This year, I introduce my just-released soon-to-be copyrighted approach...Dave's Derby Advantage or DDA. For my loyal blog readers, it is yours for free this year! That's right, FREE.

I know that a lot of players like to look at a horse's Beyer Speed Figure. This is a very complicated formula named after prominent turf writer Andy Beyer that uses a horse's prior race time, adjusts it by the overall speed of the track that day, then multiplies it by the GNP, adds in the O'Reilly Factor and subtracts the rate of inflation; the resulting figure is an index number. And to simplify the "Beyer" even further for you dopes out there that don't follow me...anything over 100 is pretty darn good.

Dossage is another term that, if you were to toss into your Derby party banter, will earn you massive credibility. Essentially, this formula looks at the horse's breeding to reveal if it can handle the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance. As long as the Dossage falls below 4.00, your horse is good to go; except when a horse like Giacamo wins. In this case, don't use Dossage.

In addition, your sharper horse players also like to consider career earnings, shoe size, class, dating history, post position, gum health, the jockey, sexual preferences, pace, the owner's W-2, track surface preferences, and pedigree. For one to use just these statistics, I respond curtly, "Pshaw! Not enough! I am going with DDA."

I have taken all this Daily Racing Form gobblydegoop, identified seven key indicators, then reformulated these horses combined performances to arrive at a number that will tell me whether this horse belongs or not. I then take this number and translate it into the kind of language that even the greenest of Derby neophytes will understand (heck, even some hilljack from Owensboro will understand it): MAYBE THE FASTEST OF ALL, FASTER THAN MOST, PRETTY DOGGONE FAST, and NOT SO FAST. This special formula takes all of the above-mentioned variables, and then reformulates it with my seven indicators -- the age of the horse, the weight it will carry, its history at this distance -- and four other similar factors that are much too complex to cover in this rather simplistic, general interest sports blog.

So, here goes...utilizing DDA, I narrowed the field down to the eight contenders below (I eliminated all horses starting from posts 17 & higher, but I cannot reveal how I got down to eight, so don't even bother asking):

PP   Horse                 Commentary & DDA Rating
2  Brilliant Speed* - great name & great closer REALLY FAST
3  Twice The Appeal* - sprinter's breeding but Calvin Borel on him REALLY FAST

6  Comma To The Top* - gutty Santa Anita 2nd MAYBE THE FASTEST OF ALL
8  Dialed In* - one of the favorites FASTER THAN MOST
12  Santiva - bad luck, may want to include in your exotics! PRETTY DOGGONE FAST
14  Shackleford - ran well in Florida Derby, why not!?  NOT SO FAST
15  Midnight Interlude* - has won two in a row; another closer  PRETTY DOGGONE FAST
16  Animal Kingdom - likes the distance; hasn't run much  PRETTY DOGGONE FAST

Those with "*" are my top five out of these; but since I am paid to predict winners here, I'll take a longshot, Comma To The Top to win and I'll throw in an Exacta box of 2-3-6-8

It is going to be a very profitable day, so thank me later.